Sacramento Kings Break Streaking Bobcats at Arco

The Bobcats have changed from a team the public loved to fade, into a recent public favorite.  The attention that veteran Gerald Wallace has received lately has garnered a lot of attention to Charlotte.  Wallace was recently added to the Eastern Conference playoff roster for the first time in his career.  He will also be competing in the popular all star weekend dunk contest.  This with and with addition of Stephen Jackson, who adds a prolific scoring option and a player with a high basketball IQ, has given the Bobcats a chance to outscore their opponents while still playing lockdown defense.  The Bobcats have been remarkable at home, but have not been very successful on the road.  They only have a 5-17 record on the road, and do not appear to be the same team sometimes.  The public is rooting for the Cats to make their first playoff appearance in franchise history.

The Sacramento Kings are a team that started off the season hot, and over performed.  They have the frontrunner for rookie of the year, Tyreke Evans, playing very well but they are a team with a young nucleus.  They were able to take the Bobcats to the brink twelve days ago in Charlotte.  The Bobcats managed to beat the Kings 105-103, even though the Bobcats usually are able to decimate teams in Charlotte.

Both teams are coming off a back to back, but the Bobcats are coming off a road win against the Golden State Warriors, which required prolific shooting and a lot of running.  The Kings played the Utah Jazz last night, but are not in the midst of a long road trip like the Bobcats.  This game will be the sixth road game of eight for the Bobcats.  The Kings have a winning home record of 13-9.  The Kings should be a home favorite here considering that the Bobcats should almost never be a road favorite unless they are playing the absolute worst teams in the league.

 

Bucks to Destroy Heat and Go Under

The Milwaukee Bucks will defeat the Miami Heat handedly at home in their first meeting of this season.  The Bucks are well rested and are underrated while the Heat played yesterday.  The Bucks have budding stars in Brandon Jennings and Andrew Bogut, who do not receive as much attention as Dwayne Wade and his array of role players.  The Heat, even though they disposed of the Detroit Pistons easily last night, are not likely to perform well on the back to back.  The Heat are a public favorite due to Wade, but he can not win a game by himself and will need his teammates to step up, which I doubt they will be able to do.  The Heat have proven themselves as a team that is not amazing on the road.  Their 11-11 road record is a bit inflated due to them beating scrub Eastern Conference teams, and stealing some on the road.  The Heat, on back to back road games have been absolutely terrible.  The suffered an 18 point loss to the Thunder, a 30 point loss to the Spurs, a 29 point loss to the Jazz, and a 39 point loss to the Bobcats in back to back road games.  Those are very large margins of defeat for the Heat in this situation.  This would lend me to believe that the value lies with the Bucks and perhaps the under.  The Heat could turn out a 70 point performance in this game easily.  The Heat coaches need to know that the best chance they have to win this game is keep the pace slow and control the tempo.  The under 190 is also a play to consider for this game.  You might even want to parlay the under with the Bucks ATS. Best of luck!

The Toronto Raptors are a solid team going on the road against the Eastern Conference leading Cleveland Cavaliers.  Expect the Raptors to show up and prove that they can compete with the best in the East.  The Raptors have been performing well recently and that can be chalked up to the play of Chris Bosh (in a contract year), decent point guards, and Andrea Bargnani.  The Cavaliers are not invincible at home like they were last year, and the Raptors are playing up to their potential this year after having a miserable last season. The Raptors are not bad enough and the Cavaliers are not good enough to demand 9½ points at Quicken Loans Arena.  It appears the spread may be inflated due to the public perception of both teams.  The Cavaliers are constantly in the national discussion for being a championship contender while the Raptors don’t even play in the United States half of the time.  The Raptors are coming off of an impressive win in Dallas two days ago, in which they were able to avoid turnovers and have consistent play by the big men.  The Maverick’s Jason Terry suggested that they overlooked the Raptors, and the Cavaliers may be guilty of falling into the same trap today.  The Raptors were able to defeat the Cavaliers at home in the first game of the season, so we know they are capable of forcing the Cavaliers to work for their win.  The 9½ points that the Cavaliers need to cover for an ATS win, well that is too many points to give up to a team who is hitting their midseason stride.  This is the Cavaliers first home game after coming off of a five game road trip, and teams can sometimes be caught in the trap of coming out flat at their first home game.  The Raptors should play inspired basketball in order to prove that they should be a contender in the East.  Lebron James will most likely need to have a big game for the Cavaliers, considering the Raptors should create the same match up problems they exposed in the first game of the season.  The Raptors have a very tall front court which clogs the middle and has been taking advantage of offensive rebounds and second chance opportunities.  Bosh and Hedo Turkoglu are 6’10” and Bargnani is 7’.  This should make it hard for a lightly injured James to force his way into the paint, and for the Cavaliers big men to be as effective as they need to be.  Turning the Cavaliers into a distance shooting team and keeping them out of the paint should keep this game close. The Cavaliers are a public favorite and they will undoubtedly receive more action than the Raptors.  It would be a smart move to wait and see if the line moves in the Raptor’s favor and then take the Raptors closer to game time.  The Raptors at double digits would be a gift. The Cavaliers are only 1-5 against the spread (ATS) this season as a home favorite between 9½ and 12 points and are 6-11 at home ATS.  Early reports from Sports Insights suggest that most of the action is on Cleveland, yet the earliest action was taking the Raptors. Raptors +9½  

The New Orleans Hornets host the San Antonio Spurs for the last game of the Spurs four game road trip. This is a great spot for the Hornets who have proven to be a great home team this year with a 15-3 record. The Spurs, on the other hand, are 7-9 on the road this year and should be flat for their last road game of this trip. The Spurs recently have received a lot of media attention after coming off a blowout home win over the then ailing Los Angeles Lakers. This win over last year’s champions and this year’s team with the best record received a lot of national media attention, and has hyped the Spurs back into championship discussions. This ignores the fact that the Spurs are only 5-11 against teams with a winning record this season. The Spurs draft pick of Dejuan Blair is also being laded as a great choice since his has proven to be an important part of Spurs scoring and rebounds. This hype might inflate the perception of the Spurs who are on a two game road losing streak. Even though the Spurs are a top flight Western Conference team it does not mean the Spurs deserve to be a road favorite. The Hornets have received a lot of negative media attention after the firing of Byron Scott and the trade of Tyson Chandler for Emeka Okafor. I would not take the first game of the season too seriously, a 113-96 Spurs home win, in deciding which team will come out as victor in this game. The Spurs are an older veteran team who are trying to make the playoffs without risking injury or depleting the energy of their older stars. The Western Conference is deep and even though the Hornets are in the basement of the Southwestern division and eleventh in the conference they are only three games behind the current fourth seeded Spurs in the conference. Tim Duncan is reportedly resting on more back-to-backs, and even though this game has had one day of rest, expect his minutes to be limited. With the Hornets on the outside of the playoffs looking in expect them to show up for this game, since each loss will take them one more game away from a coveted playoff spot. The Hornets are playing at home after coming back from a two game road trip. The Spur’s Michael Finley will be out this game, while the Hornets do not have any significant injuries right now. Early reports from Sports Insights are suggesting that a significant majority of early action is favoring the Spurs, which is just what should be expected. Pinnacle Sports opened the game with the Spurs as a 1 point favorite but it has moved them to a 1 point dog, and 5dimes opened the Spurs as a 1 point favorite and now have them as a 1½ point dog. This suggests that their might be Pinnacle and 5dimes reverse line movement, and that the sharp money is on the Hornets in this game. Bet Jamaica is still offering the Hornets as the 1 point dog, so do a little line shopping and take the insurance point. You might think about taking the Hornets moneyline and avoiding the spread altogether. Hornets +1

When looking over Friday’s NBA card, it appears odd that the Bobcats are only two point dogs to the championship contender San Antonio Spurs.  The Bobcats are not a fan favorite this year, nor should they be outside of Charlotte, however, this is a good spot for them.  The Bobcats have been dominant at home (14-4), a little known fact for a team which is dismal on the road (3-15).  At home the Cats can beat some of the best teams in the league, but on the road it is a different story.  This Friday the Cats are playing in Charlotte, and home court has been the difference for them and has made their season a relative success thus far this season. This creates a good betting situation and a lot of value for a team, which I believe should be a home favorite.  If we look at the reputations and record of the teams it is easy to understand why the Spurs would pass the eye test as a favorite in this game.  The Spurs are a team with relatively recent championships, and are perennially past at least the first round of the playoffs.  The Bobcats are seeking there first franchise playoff appearance, and the coach, Larry Brown, is the only aspect of the team that receives national attention and respect.  While the Spurs are always in the national discussion, the Cats have a reputation for being bottom dwellers.  The Bobcats last game was a home game three days ago, giving them good rest before a big game.  The team is also on a two game winning streak.  I wouldn’t place too much importance on their 85-104 loss to the Spurs in San Antonio on December 11th for a few reasons.  On the December game the Spurs, who rely on older players, had a day of rest during a home stint and the Cats were on the road, which has been their kryptonite this season. This time, the Spurs are on the second game of a four game road trip after coming off a blowout home win over the ailing Los Angeles Lakers.  This win over last year’s champions and this year’s team with the best record received a lot of national media attention, and has hyped the Spurs back into championship discussions.  This hype might inflate the perception of the Spurs who have earned only a .500 (7-7) record this season.  Normally a .500 road team is nothing to scoff at but that does not mean the Spurs deserve to be a road favorite.  Early reports are suggesting that a vast majority of early action is favoring the Spurs, which is just what should be expected.  Public bettors usually feel more comfortable taking established teams, even when they are playing on the road.  I believe the sharper action will be taking a side that scares most bettors.  Don’t be afraid. Bobcats +2.

 

The Bobcats moneyline is also a solid bet to make on this game if you don’t want the insurance basket. Betonline released them at +110.

Let’s look at the two NBA games this Thursday on TNT.  Besides all the fun loving humor that will be generated from Charles Barkley’s recent SNL hosting stint, let’s focus on the matchups.  This Thursday features one home favorite and a pick em.

Chicago Bulls @ Boston Celtics (-7)

The Chicago Bull’s (16-20, ATS 16-17-3) woes have been well documented.  The Bulls are not a public favorite especially after being the New Jersey Nets only road win, and only accumulating three total road wins of their own this season.  The Bulls took the Boston Celtics (26-10, ATS 16-20) to the brink in last year’s playoffs by utilizing their youth and athleticism, and although they have lost Ben Gordon they still have the pieces in place which could provide a good matchup for them against the Celtics.  The Celtics also played last night against the aforementioned Nets, and for a team which relies heavily on veteran players, they might run the risk of coming out flat against a team that has a lot to prove.  This should be the difference that allows the Bulls to cover and not be blown out like they did early in the season by 28 and then 26 points.  In both of those blowout games the Bulls were playing off of a back to back, while the Celtics were well rested.  The Bulls last game was three days ago and they are currently on a two game winning streak.  With these factors and the public seeing the Celtics blowout wins over the Bulls this season, the Bulls will be undervalued.

Pick: Chicago Bulls +7

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Utah Jazz (PK)

With a lot of early action on the Cleveland Cavaliers (30-10, ATS 20-20), the public believes that one of the hottest teams in the Association should be the favorite in this game, but the books seem to be leaning the other way.  The Utah Jazz (21-17, ATS 22-16) are a perennially tough home team, but have not done as well this year as years past.  The Cavaliers are in the middle of a five game road trip and both teams are equally rested.  The Cavaliers are 16-7 on the road this year, and Utah’s high altitude home court could give the Jazz an edge.  Some of the Cavaliers statistics are skewed due to the ease of their division and the overall softness of the Eastern Conference versus the difficulty of the Northwest division and the Western Conference.  Earlier this season the Cavaliers defeated the Jazz 107-103 in Cleveland, but the Jazz were playing without their best player Deron Williams and on the road.  The line at Pinnacle Sports has moved from Cavaliers being a 1 point favorite to a 1 point dog, while Bookmaker and the Greek have maintained the game as a PK since the game opened for betting.  The game is showing signs of potential Pinnacle reverse line movement, which would lead me to believe that the Jazz are the sharp side here.

Pick: Utah Jazz (PK)

Dallas at Minnesota (-2.5, 45.5)

After defeating the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC Wild Card round, the Dallas Cowboys have won their last four games.  The Minnesota Vikings (12-4, 9-6-1 ATS), however, have lost three of the last five and seem to have stumbled into the playoffs.  Last week we watched the Cowboys (12-5, 10-7 ATS) dominate the Eagles, where scheming and individual matchup advantages were evident.  Sunday’s game has opened with the Vikings being a -2.5 point home favorite where they are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.

 

Both teams have top ten defenses.  During the regular season the Vikings allowed 305.5 yards per game (ypg), while the Cowboys allowed 315.9 ypg.  Both teams gave up around 90 ypg rushing.  Both teams were also tied for second in the NFC in takeaways during the regular season.  It will be interesting to see how the number two offensive Dallas team and the number five offensive Minnesota team fare against these stingy defenses.

 

Despite Brett Favre’s gunslinger reputation he has thrown 33 touchdowns with only 7 interceptions and has gained a passer rating of 107.2, which is much higher than his career rating of 86.6.  Tony Romo has thrown 29 touchdowns with only 9 interceptions and has obtained a passer rating of 97.6.  Both quarterbacks have an overall young receiving corp, and utilize young number one receivers.  Romo has often been criticized on his inability to win in the postseason, while Favre has already won a Superbowl and is a future Hall-of-Famer.

 

An important matchup which looks to bring an interesting subplot to the game is Viking’s left tackle Bryant McKinnie against the pass rush of the Cowboys.  The Vikings will need to utilize Adrian Petersen and their running game; otherwise, they will give DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer too many opportunities to sack Favre.  Last week, the Cowboys forced the Eagles to become one-dimensional. The Eagles ran the ball just thirteen times against the Dallas defense, and that did not work for them despite having a talented receiving corp. Ware had two sacks and one forced fumble, while Spencer had one sack in last Saturday's Wild Card Round game.

 

The Cowboys are gaining a lot of attention for being a “hot” team. Terence Newman gave some insight into the mentality of the Cowboys locker room by saying, "I hate to bring up old things, but the Giants, they got hot at the right time and they won it all.  Hopefully, we're on that same type of streak. I think a lot of guys are playing with a lot of confidence and that's important. As long as you keep moving forward and keep the confidence up, swag, so to speak, we should be all right."  The Vikings, however, have had the addition of Favre who has been the difference in earning Minnesota’s first unbeaten home season since 1998. The forty year old Favre has created a home juggernaut, and has given teammates a never-say-die mentality which was epitomized in the last seconds of the Week Three 49’s game.  Jared Allen gives the Vikings there own “swag” on defense and has amassed 14.5 sacks this season.

 

Very early action came heavy on Dallas but has stabilized since.  There has been disparity in the line with books offering varying numbers. Books have been straddling the important field goal number of 3 points, with Pinnacle offering the Vikings as -2.5, -118, Bookmaker offering -3, +110, and 5dimes offering -2, -125.  With a large amount of positive public attention, the Cowboys have received over 55% (Sportsinsights.com) of the public action.  The total for the game opened at 48 but has since moved to 45.5, after 80%+ took the under early in the week.

After defeating the Cleveland Cavaliers on the road, the Celtics play a back to back for their home opener against the Charlotte Bobcats.  Now the Bobcats are not a great team, and are most likely going to be about as good as they were last year (which isn't great) but what is going for the Bobcats is that they are playing an old team that just won a big first game on the road.  Last night Doc Rivers played a questionably healthy Kevin Garnett more minutes that he initially planned, and I know Rivers is not going to keep Garnett or Ray Allen's minutes high against a scrub team like the Bobcats, even for the home opener.  The Celtics are a team bound for the playoffs and they have already proven that they just need to win these games and not deplete their "big three".  Glenn "Big Baby" Davis being out with a broken finger and suspension also hurts the Celtics rotation, since Davis usually plays significant minutes.

  The Bobcats coached by Larry Brown, are expected to have a decent game plan for this match, and it would be utterly embarrassing to not show up for the opening game.  The Bobcats have playoff aspirations, and although they have no big name players they do have enough to keep this game close.  The Bobcats have a decent amount of team chemistry after almost making the playoffs last season.  They also have a tried and true coach who garners the respect that is needed for a team that is a perennial loser.  The Bobcats will do well against the Celtics because they play very good defense and should get quite a few turnovers off of the Celtics. The turnovers give the Bobcats a chance to stay in games with teams they probably shouldn't. With the acquisition of Tyson Chandler, the Bobcats have the potential to be one of the leagues top defensive teams. They were seventh in defense last season even though they were notorious for a high turnover rate.  This allows the Bobcats to stay in games, which is exactly what we need.    The Celtics are a public team, and I don't think the public believes Charlotte has enough offensive weapons to score on the Celtics strong defense.  The Celtics are one of the most talked about teams in the league and are a serious contender for the championship.  The Bobcats are just hoping to make the playoffs for the first time in franchise history.  Because of championship importance the Bobcats are getting very little face time on television, and so they are naturally going to be under rated, while the Celtics have been hyped all preseason.  I do think that bad teams can make surprising covers if a team is playing a back to back, and the Bobcats probably would have a very good chance to cover without this added situation.  The disparity in the NBA is not as significant as teams in other leagues. This is a good situation for the Bobcats to cover. After defeating the Cleveland Cavaliers on the road, the Celtics play a back to back for their home opener against the Charlotte Bobcats.  Now the Bobcats are not a great team, and are most likely going to be about as good as they were last year (which isn't great) but what is going for the Bobcats is that they are playing an old team that just won a big first game on the road.  Last night Doc Rivers played a questionably healthy Kevin Garnett more minutes that he initially planned, and I know Rivers is not going to keep Garnett or Ray Allen's minutes high against a scrub team like the Bobcats, even for the home opener.  The Celtics are a team bound for the playoffs and they have already proven that they just need to win these games and not deplete their "big three".  Glenn "Big Baby" Davis being out with a broken finger and suspension also hurts the Celtics rotation, since Davis usually plays significant minutes.

  The Bobcats coached by Larry Brown, are expected to have a decent game plan for this match, and it would be utterly embarrassing to not show up for the opening game.  The Bobcats have playoff aspirations, and although they have no big name players they do have enough to keep this game close.  The Bobcats have a decent amount of team chemistry after almost making the playoffs last season.  They also have a tried and true coach who garners the respect that is needed for a team that is a perennial loser.  The Bobcats will do well against the Celtics because they play very good defense and should get quite a few turnovers off of the Celtics. The turnovers give the Bobcats a chance to stay in games with teams they probably shouldn't. With the acquisition of Tyson Chandler, the Bobcats have the potential to be one of the leagues top defensive teams. They were seventh in defense last season even though they were notorious for a high turnover rate.  This allows the Bobcats to stay in games, which is exactly what we need.    The Celtics are a public team, and I don't think the public believes Charlotte has enough offensive weapons to score on the Celtics strong defense.  The Celtics are one of the most talked about teams in the league and are a serious contender for the championship.  The Bobcats are just hoping to make the playoffs for the first time in franchise history.  Because of championship importance the Bobcats are getting very little face time on television, and so they are naturally going to be under rated, while the Celtics have been hyped all preseason.  I do think that bad teams can make surprising covers if a team is playing a back to back, and the Bobcats probably would have a very good chance to cover without this added situation.  The disparity in the NBA is not as significant as teams in other leagues. This is a good situation for the Bobcats to cover. 

The Portland Trailblazers open their season against the Houston Rockets at the Rose Garden Arena.  Both the Blazers and the Rockets made the playoffs last year, but that was last year and this is now.  The Rockets have gained a significant amount of national notoriety after taking the soon-to-be champion Lakers to the brink in last years play offs.  Unfortunately for the Rockets the team will not be nearly as good as it was last year.  Last year the team relied on solid defense, and the post play of Yao Ming, along with good play from Ron Artest and role players.  No Yao, and no Artest this year.  The team is also without Tracey McGrady who is recovering from micro fracture surgery on his left knee.  Brooks, Scola, Battier, and Ariza aren’t suddenly going to become offensive dynamos.  The Rockets were not a high scoring team with their best offensive players, it is wonder how they will score with out them.  Worse for the Rockets, it’s hard to imagine any of these players demanding a double team, and only Brooks has the foreseeable talent of creating his own offense.  The Rockets might play good defense but they have no star quality, and a team full of role players is not going to score enough points to defeat a spry offense in that of the Blazers.

 

The Blazers are a team that improved this offseason with Andre Miller at the point.  The Blazers are a young team that is deep at all positions and has all-star talent.  Since most of the players are young, the Blazers are expected to have continued growth, and are still an up and coming team.  Because of an early exit in last years playoffs the public, and many people who don’t stay up late to watch West Coast games, few the true talent of this team.  The Blazers may be one of the most underrated teams in the entire league.  Oden will be greatly improved, and should create an inside presence for a team that is already decent defensively with Przybilla as a starter.

 

The matchups favor Portland in this game.  Portland has star players who will demand double teams.  The Rockets are relying on role players to have a break out game, but this seems unlikely since the Rockets do not have a player who creates opportunities for role players to make plays.  Both Roy and Aldridge are projected all stars who each can devastate teams if they are given enough attention by the defense.  Aldridge has a few inches on his competition and his height will give Houston matchup problems at the 4 and 5.  Oden should dominate the middle seeing as how small the Rockets are.  With 6’6” Hayes at center and 6’8” Scola at power forward, Oden or Przybilla should have no problem clogging up the middle and dominating the paint.

 

Early estimates gather that Houston is receiving a majority of public action. Pinnacle opened the betting with Portland being an 8.5 point home favorite, and the line has moved up to as high as 10 at some books.  This could suggest that sharp money is favoring the Trail Blazers.

 Cincinnati Bengals (PK) to defeat Chicago Bears

The Bengals, coming off a home loss against the Houston Texans look to bounce back with a win against the Chicago Bears.  The Bears are a highly publicized team that still is receiving a lot of buzz because of off season moves and high expectations.  Last Sunday the Bears lost on the nationally televised Sunday night game to the Atlanta Falcons.  The Bengals are a perplexing team that beat the Baltimore Ravens on the road, the Green Bay Packers on the road, the Pittsburgh Steelers at home, and barring a fluke play would have beaten the undefeated Denver Broncos.  Yet despite impressive wins, it must be noted that they had to defeat the woeful Cleveland Browns in overtime, just lost to the perennially average Houston Texans at home, and have squeaked out most of their wins.  The Bears are lucky to have some of their wins this season.  In all of their games they struggled to win and they are winning games late in the fourth quarter.  The Bears have not had as difficult competition as the Bengals and look like an average team thus far. The Bengals have proven they can defeat teams that are better than the Bears, and the Bears have glaring flaws especially with the receiving corps.  The Bears have problems with their o-line, minimal running game, and rely entirely on Jay Cutler to create offense.  The Bengals have proven they can beat a team with similar offensive problems in their win against the Steelers.

Since the game is a pick em, it is clear that the Bears are perceived as a better team since home field does affect the line.  Since it does not appear that the Bears are a more talented or cohesive football team, I can not see how there is not value in the home team.  It would not be surprising if the Bears have a horrible game.  Jay Culter has bouts of interception laden games, and if Cutler plays poorly so goes the team.  It is a concern that Antwan Odom will be out for the Bengals, but it should help the Bengals that the Bears do not have a number 1 (or really number 2) receiver.  Hester should be shut down the same way Derrick Mason of the Ravens was a non factor.

It should be recognized that the Bears are a public team.  Being from a major city with a quarterback who has attracted a lot of recent media attention brings in bettors.  The Bengals, despite their HBO “Hard Knocks” special, are not a public team and still have the stigma as a below average team.  The team is clicking this year since they have their offensive stars healthy.  Carson Palmer, many forget, was one of the top quarterbacks in the league before he became plagued with injuries.  Chad Ochocinco is also a healthy weapon for Palmer this year.  Cedric Benson has also become an “angry” runner and this week he should be as angry as ever against the team he felt did him wrong.

When looking at public betting percentages, the Bears are receiving 65% of total bets, and Pinnacle has had the Bengals steady as a 1 point favorite since opening.  Other books, including Bookmaker has the game as a pick em. Best of luck!

Boise State at Tulsa

This is one of those mid week games that wouldn’t normally get a lot of attention if it were being played on Saturday.  However, this Wednesday game is going to receive added media coverage since the public wants to watch the perennial Cinderella of the Boise State football team continue its hope for a BCS berth.  In this particular case, Boise State plays the role of public favorite and Tulsa plays the role of Team X trying to derail a BCS hopeful.  Now I could procure a bunch of statistics that support my opinion on the game, but I won’t bother.  Using stats and information in order to handicap a game is extraordinarily difficult to accurately do, and even harder to do consistently.  I’ll leave that for the big time bettors.  I concede that I won’t be able to out-handicap the people who draw the lines.  Instead let’s look at the situation, and hopefully make some money for the small time bettor.

            First of all, Tulsa is not a terrible team.  Tulsa plays in a weak conference, but they have only lost one game which was a blow out by Oklahoma.  I wouldn’t place too much value on a blowout loss to a top team on the road in determining how good a team can perform. Second of all, Tulsa is a home dog.  Playing at home is a pretty big deal in college football.  It is not uncommon for an unknown home team to upset a favored road team.  I tend to like home dogs in general since the home dog seem less likely to give up on the game, and teams always play better at home than on the road.  Third, the game is nationally televised, and this is an important factor to consider for a team like Tulsa, which doesn’t receive a lot of national attention.  This adds extra incentives, and nationally televised games are famous/notorious for having closer than expected games.

            Let’s also look at the national clout of Boise State versus Tulsa. Boise State licked Oregon by 11 points for the first game of the college season on national television.  People think much more highly of Oregon than Tulsa, so it can be assumed that the public will disregard where the game is being played and look at basic point differentials.  Basic thinking: If Boise can beat Oregon by 11, they can easily cover against a team that appears worse than Oregon.  People still think of Boise State as the team that beat Oklahoma in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl, and some think they should play for the national championship if they go undefeated.  Boise is indeed a formidable home team, but this game is on the road and Boise has not had much competition on the road yet. Tulsa is not very well known nationally and has only beaten teams that are not considered good.

            Besides these factors I find the line movement to be very interesting.  The line opened at 9, moved to 10.5 and is now down to 8.5 at some books including the sharp lines of Pinnacle.  It appears the public is hammering Boise State (as expected).  According to sbrodds.com, Boise State is receiving about 70% of the action, but the line is moving in the opposite direction.  It seems some hefty money is on Tulsa in this game, and I always find it beneficial to side with the money.  Since this line is a dog it might be better to wait until game time to take Tulsa, however the line seems to be moving down so it’s your call.

            All these factors combined, Tulsa to cover the spread against Boise State is the play.  If you can get Tulsa at +9 take it (it’s going for 9 still at many reputable books).  The Tulsa money line also is not a horrible play for value here either.  Currently the money line is being offered at +280 to +300.